Anta Bypoll Defeat Exposes Deep Factional Cracks Within Rajasthan BJP

The BJP’s surprise defeat in the Anta assembly bypoll has emerged as a major setback for the party in Rajasthan, especially at a time when it was celebrating victories elsewhere. The loss has reignited internal tensions, raised questions about leadership influence, and highlighted severe strategic missteps within the state unit.

Congress candidate and former minister Pramod Jain Bhaya defeated BJP’s Morpul Suman by a significant margin of 15,612 votes, turning a seat considered safe for the BJP into a strategic blow.

Poor Strategy and Internal Fault Lines

While BJP state president Madan Rathore attributed the defeat to inadequate publicity around government schemes, political observers argue that the real reasons lie much deeper — from weak candidate selection to internal factionalism.

The Congress acted with clarity, quickly choosing Bhaya, a seasoned local leader with strong grassroots connections. They rejected alternate suggestions, including Naresh Meena, who eventually contested independently and damaged the BJP’s vote bank.

The BJP, meanwhile, appeared divided. The seat falls within the area influenced by former CM Vasundhara Raje and her son, MP Dushyant Singh. The leadership wanted Raje’s involvement, but reports suggested reluctance on her part — interpreted by some as a strategic distancing ahead of possible defeat. Under pressure, she ultimately selected Suman, a relatively unfamiliar face.

Independent Candidate Upsets BJP’s Calculations

Naresh Meena’s independent run severely cut into BJP’s traditional votes. Once seen as a rising youth leader among the Meena community, Naresh has faced controversies, including spending eight months in jail after an alleged assault on a government official. His aggressive style wins support from younger voters but alienates others.

Raje’s Influence Questioned

The defeat has raised a sensitive question within the BJP: Is Vasundhara Raje’s dominance in her home turf fading?
Many regional leaders who are not aligned with her camp reportedly stayed absent from campaign efforts, including supporters of Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and state ministers Kirodi Lal Meena and Hira Lal Nagar — signalling clear internal divisions.

Adding to the turmoil, Raje loyalist Pratap Singh Singhvi publicly blamed the party leadership for sidelining grassroots workers. Insiders believe Singhvi might be repositioning himself politically as Raje’s influence appears to weaken.

Congress Runs a Strong, Coordinated Campaign

In contrast, the Congress displayed unity and discipline. Rajasthan Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra portrayed the victory as a setback to the BJP’s governance. Senior leaders actively campaigned, offering consistent organisational support to Bhaya. Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma, however, campaigned only twice.

Impact on Rajasthan BJP

For CM Sharma, the result comes during a sensitive phase. After strong bypoll performances last year, his internal stature was rising. Analysts suggest that allowing Raje to lead the Anta campaign was a strategic move:

• If she won, BJP gained.
• If she lost, her influence weakened while Sharma’s position strengthened.

The outcome appears to benefit Sharma.

A Wake-Up Call for the BJP

The Anta bypoll loss doesn’t threaten the BJP government but highlights a deeper crisis — growing factionalism, delayed decision-making and weakening coordination. For the Congress, the victory is more than a single-seat win; it signals renewed relevance in Rajasthan.

For the BJP, the message is clear: rebuilding unity and strategy is now urgent.