Gold Holds Above $4,100 as Rate-Cut Bets and Central-Bank Buying Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices continued to trade steadily above $4,100 per ounce on Wednesday, supported by softer U.S. economic data, ongoing central-bank purchases, and renewed rate-cut hopes from the Federal Reserve.

Gold futures rose 0.3% to $4,128.70, while spot gold was last seen at $4,126.51, up nearly 56% year-to-date — marking its best performance since 1979. Silver climbed 1.13% to $51.80, whereas crude oil slipped 0.84% to $60.53 per barrel.

Safe-Haven Demand Strengthens

The yellow metal’s gains come as investors digest weak U.S. payroll data and the extended government shutdown, both of which have weighed on economic confidence. The data pointed to slower job growth, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could deliver more rate cuts in the coming months — a bullish sign for non-yielding assets like gold.

“The lingering effects of the U.S. government shutdown continue to fuel safe-haven demand,” said Hebe Chan of Vantage Markets.

Gold briefly eased after three sessions of gains as traders awaited delayed economic reports. Still, analysts say its resilience above $4,100 reflects strong investor confidence amid global uncertainty.

Technical View: Key Resistance Ahead

Gold has rallied 6.7% since late October, testing a crucial resistance zone between $4,125 and $4,193.
Analysts note that a sustained break above this range could push prices toward $4,252 and possibly retest 2025’s record high near $4,382.

“Gold price action is stalling just below a pivotal resistance level. Bulls need to defend $4,049 to maintain control,” said Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist at TradingView.

Support levels are seen at $4,049 and $3,987–$4,002, while deeper corrections could extend to $3,900.

Analysts’ Forecasts: $4,500–$4,700 in 2026?

Several global banks, including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, have projected long-term upside for gold, forecasting targets between $4,500 and $4,700 by 2026.
They cite continued central-bank accumulation, weaker dollar prospects, and Fed easing cycles as key bullish drivers.

“Gold may consolidate near current levels before its next push higher in 2026, as investors rotate out of overbought sectors like AI,” noted Charu Chanana of Saxo Markets.

Outlook: Consolidation Before Breakout

Despite a mild dollar rebound after a week of losses, gold remains well-supported by macro uncertainty. Analysts expect short-term consolidation but say the long-term trend remains upward as inflation risks and policy easing sustain safe-haven demand.

With delayed U.S. economic releases and a series of Fed speeches scheduled later this week, traders are closely monitoring any policy signals that could shape gold’s next breakout.

For now, gold’s ability to hold above $4,100 underscores one thing — the bulls are still firmly in charge.