BNP’s Landslide Victory: What Tarique Rahman’s Rise Means for Pakistan and Regional Power Dynamics

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has secured a commanding two-thirds majority in the general elections, marking a dramatic political shift in Bangladesh after months of uncertainty following the removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, is poised to assume office as Bangladesh’s next Prime Minister after nearly 18 years in exile. His return signals the end of the interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who stepped in following Hasina’s departure to India in August 2024.

A Strategic Reset in Dhaka

The BNP’s return to power — the party last governed between 2001 and 2007 — is expected to recalibrate Bangladesh’s foreign policy approach, especially in balancing ties with India and Pakistan.

Islamabad has been closely observing political developments in Dhaka. Over recent months, Pakistan has actively sought to repair previously strained relations, particularly after Sheikh Hasina’s exit. Reports suggest increased diplomatic and security-level engagements between the two nations, with Pakistan attempting to rebuild strategic and security cooperation.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif swiftly congratulated Rahman, expressing hope for strengthening “historic and brotherly multifaceted bilateral relations” and advancing shared goals of peace and stability in South Asia.

Pakistan’s Strategic Calculations

For Pakistan, the BNP’s resurgence presents both opportunity and uncertainty.

Historically, BNP has been viewed as more open to engagement with Islamabad compared to its rival Awami League. Analysts note that both BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami have maintained past connections with Pakistan, though the current rivalry between BNP and Jamaat introduces new variables.

Security experts believe Pakistan may attempt to maintain strong ties with the new government while simultaneously preserving back-channel links with Islamist networks as a hedge against political unpredictability.

However, Rahman’s recent public statements suggest a more nationalist and independent foreign policy direction. During a major rally in Dhaka, he emphasized a “Bangladesh First” doctrine, declaring that the country would not align itself exclusively with either India or Pakistan.

He also criticized political factions perceived as siding with Pakistan during the 1971 Liberation War, indicating an effort to distance his leadership from historical controversies.

India’s Parallel Outreach

India, meanwhile, is moving quickly to reinforce its engagement with the incoming leadership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has maintained communication with the BNP leadership.

In a symbolic diplomatic gesture, India’s External Affairs Minister attended Khaleda Zia’s funeral and personally delivered a letter of condolences from PM Modi to Tarique Rahman, signaling New Delhi’s intent to sustain stable bilateral ties.

What Lies Ahead

Tarique Rahman’s leadership could reshape South Asia’s geopolitical balance. While Pakistan sees potential for warmer ties, Rahman’s nationalist positioning suggests that Bangladesh may pursue a pragmatic, multi-vector foreign policy rather than align strongly with any one regional power.

The coming months will reveal whether Dhaka tilts strategically toward Islamabad, recalibrates ties with New Delhi, or asserts a more independent regional role focused on domestic stability and economic growth.

One thing is certain: Bangladesh’s new political chapter will have significant implications for the broader South Asian strategic landscape.