Bihar Exit Polls 2025: Can Nitish Kumar Defy the Odds Again? A Look at Past Predictions vs Reality

As Bihar concludes its second and final phase of polling, all eyes are on the exit polls scheduled for release later this evening. This election is a key test for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s NDA and the opposition INDIA bloc, led by Tejashwi Yadav, as both battle for dominance across the state’s 243 assembly constituencies.

The results, to be declared on November 14, will decide whether Nitish Kumar’s two-decade rule continues or whether Tejashwi’s Mahagathbandhan ushers in a new era. A party or alliance needs 122 seats to form the government.

Exit Polls to Begin After 5 PM

Once polling concludes around 5 PM, major pollsters — including Times Now-India Today’s Chanakya, Axis My India, CSDS, C Voter, and ETG Research — will start publishing their exit poll predictions.

These projections often set the tone for the political narrative in the days leading up to the official counting. However, Bihar’s complex caste matrix and voting behavior have often made exit polls unreliable indicators in the past.

Flashback: Bihar Assembly Elections 2020

The 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections were held in three phases — October 28, November 3, and November 7 — with a voter turnout of 57.29%. Despite the RJD emerging as the single largest party with 75 seats, it failed to form the government due to Congress’s poor performance.

The NDA, led by JD(U) and BJP, managed to form the government. Though the BJP won 74 seats and JD(U) just 43, Nitish Kumar retained the Chief Minister’s chair under the alliance arrangement.

How Accurate Were Exit Polls in 2020?

In 2020, most exit polls overestimated the performance of the Mahagathbandhan while underplaying the NDA’s comeback:

• India Today–Axis My India predicted a landslide win for the Mahagathbandhan with 150 seats, giving NDA only 80.
• Times Now–C Voter projected a hung house, with NDA at 116 and Mahagathbandhan at 120.
• Jan Ki Baat foresaw NDA 104, Grand Alliance 128, and LJP 7.
• TV9 Bharatvarsh estimated UPA 120, NDA 115.
• ETG Research predicted UPA 120, NDA 114, LJP 3, Others 6.

When results came in, the NDA defied the predictions, proving once again that Bihar’s electorate remains unpredictable.

What to Watch Tonight

With the 2025 Exit Polls set to roll out, the big question is whether Nitish Kumar can repeat his past resilience or if Tejashwi Yadav’s coalition will finally break the NDA’s long-standing hold over Bihar.

Stay tuned for real-time Bihar Exit Poll updates and analysis tonight on 24×7 News.