As campaigning for the first phase of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 concludes, two major opinion polls — POLSTRAT-People’s Insight and Chanakya Strategies — have predicted a narrow but clear lead for the NDA over the Mahagathbandhan alliance.
According to the POLSTRAT-People’s Insight survey, the NDA is expected to win between 133 and 143 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (led by the RJD and Congress) is projected to secure 93–102 seats. Smaller parties like Jan Suraaj, AIMIM, and independents may win up to five seats combined.
Party-wise Breakdown (POLSTRAT Survey)
- NDA: BJP (70–72), JD(U) (53–56), HAM (0–2), LJP (10–12), RLM (0–1)
- Mahagathbandhan: RJD (69–72), Congress (10–13), Left (14–15), VIP (1–2), IIP (0–1)
Vote share estimates:
- NDA – 45%
- Mahagathbandhan – 39%
- Others – 16%
The Chanakya Strategies poll similarly predicts an NDA lead, projecting 128–134 seats for the ruling alliance and 102–108 for the opposition bloc.
While both polls point towards the NDA forming the next government, analysts caution that the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and alliance dynamics when results are declared on November 14.
